WN 3216 · OGG → HNL

departs 1:50 PM HT · arrives 2:46 PM HT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from OGG are often late

↑ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ This flight has been late 6% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3216 · OGG → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?