WN 3244 · PHX → OMA

departs 11:41 AM MT · arrives 4:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into OMA at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OMA

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OMA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3244 · PHX → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?