WN 3301 · ORF → BWI

departs 9:51 AM ET · arrives 11:03 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at BWI that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORF that day

↑ BWI is busy at that time

↓ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.28 in

BWI (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3301 · ORF → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?