WN 3321 · AUS → TPA

departs 6:16 PM CT · arrives 9:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3321 · AUS → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?