Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3406 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

WN 3406 · OAK → SAN

departs 11:19 AM PT · arrives 12:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3406 · OAK → SAN

Odds over time