WN 3408 · PHX → LAS

departs 7:36 PM MT · arrives 8:52 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

75% chance · ±0 pts +30 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
47%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3408 · PHX → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?