WN 3412 · PHX → TPA

departs 6:16 PM MT · arrives 1:19 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3412 · PHX → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?