Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 3417 · RDU → AUS
departs 6:50 PM ET · arrives 8:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
RDU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.24 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.