WN 3420 · ROC → BWI

departs 12:17 PM ET · arrives 1:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BWI that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from ROC are often late

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3420 · ROC → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?