Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 3431 · RDU → MCO
departs 6:10 PM ET · arrives 8:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 31%
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.05 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.