Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3468
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 3468 · SAN → SMF
departs 11:00 AM PT · arrives 12:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
SAN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.