WN 3477 · PHX → SJC

departs 7:55 PM MT · arrives 9:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3477 · PHX → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?