Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3547
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 3547 · SAN → SMF
departs 2:40 PM PT · arrives 4:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 51% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.