Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3569
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 3569 · LAS → AUS
departs 7:50 PM PT · arrives 12:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.