Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 356
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 356 · OAK → SBA
departs 6:05 PM PT · arrives 7:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SBA that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.