Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 3686 · DAL → RDU
departs 1:50 PM CT · arrives 5:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
41%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DAL that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.