WN 3726 · RNO → SAN

departs 5:11 PM PT · arrives 6:54 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3726 · RNO → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?