Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3761
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 3761 · BDL → BWI
departs 1:30 PM ET · arrives 2:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
BDL is prone to delays
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BDL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.