WN 3768 · SEA → SMF

departs 6:15 AM PT · arrives 8:11 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SEA are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3768 · SEA → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?