WN 3794 · STL → RSW

took off 5:53 AM CT · landed 9:01 AM ET (scheduled 6:00 AM CT → 9:39 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RSW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ STL is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3794 · STL → RSW

Odds over time

How late did it get to RSW?