Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3798
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 3798 · SMF → MCI
departs 10:00 AM PT · arrives 3:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.