Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 381
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 381 · AUS → SMF
departs 11:15 AM CT · arrives 12:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.