WN 3830 · PVD → TPA

took off 6:18 AM ET · expected to land 9:06 AM ET (scheduled 6:10 AM ET → 9:30 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from PVD are usually not late

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.14 in

TPA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3830 · PVD → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?