Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3838
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 3838 · BWI → SAV
departs 8:10 PM ET · arrives 10:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at SAV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAV?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at SAV that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SAV usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.18 in
SAV (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.