Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3849
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 3849 · SNA → OAK
departs 9:15 AM PT · arrives 10:40 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from SNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.