WN 3853 · ELP → PHX

departs 9:36 PM MT · arrives 10:05 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ 9pm departures from ELP are often late

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

Weather at each end

ELP (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3853 · ELP → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?