WN 3858 · TPA → RDU

departs 9:46 AM ET · arrives 11:45 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at RDU that day

↑ TPA is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

RDU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3858 · TPA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?