Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 3865 · LAS → SJC
departs 6:55 PM PT · arrives 8:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.