Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3871 IN THE AIR (OFF 9:01 AM CT, ETA 10:16 AM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

WN 3871 · MKE → LAS

took off 9:01 AM CT · expected to land 10:16 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 8am departures from MKE are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

LAS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3871 · MKE → LAS

Odds over time