Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3878
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 3878 · STS → BUR
departs 4:00 PM PT · arrives 5:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STS
Weather at each end
STS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.