Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3888
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 3888 · BNA → SMF
departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 4:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.