Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3893 LANDED 3:19 PM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Yesterday

WN 3893 · PHL → STL

took off 2:18 PM ET · landed 3:19 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ 2pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.18 in

STL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3893 · PHL → STL

Odds over time