WN 3914 · TPA → SAN

departs 6:28 PM ET · arrives 8:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

97% chance · ±0 pts +38 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
13%
15–30 min late
57%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
26%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

SAN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3914 · TPA → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?