WN 3918 · SMF → KOA

took off 10:09 AM PT · expected to land 12:25 PM HT (scheduled 10:01 AM PT → 12:45 PM HT)

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to KOA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↑ SMF is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KOA

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3918 · SMF → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?