WN 3949 · SMF → ONT

took off 3:13 PM PT · landed 4:11 PM PT (scheduled 1:55 PM PT → 3:32 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ONT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SMF are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ONT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ONT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3949 · SMF → ONT

Odds over time

How late did it get to ONT?