Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3950
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 3950 · STL → MCO
departs 8:55 PM CT · arrives 12:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
8pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.