Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3956
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 3956 · HOU → LAS
departs 7:10 PM CT · arrives 8:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±6 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.16 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.