WN 398 · MSY → AUS

departs 10:40 AM CT · arrives 12:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ AUS is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling567 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.03 in

AUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 398 · MSY → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?