Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3998
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 3998 · TPA → AUS
departs 6:40 AM ET · arrives 8:05 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.