Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4006
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4006 · TPA → BNA
departs 7:35 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±6 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.