Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4033
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4033 · BWI → BNA
departs 10:10 PM ET · arrives 11:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.13 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.