Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 403
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 403 · AUS → MSY
departs 5:05 PM CT · arrives 6:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.22 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.49 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.