Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4049 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

WN 4049 · TPA → STL

departs 8:15 AM ET · arrives 9:35 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 8am departures from TPA are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

STL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4049 · TPA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?