Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4050 LANDED 11:09 AM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

WN 4050 · IND → RSW

took off 8:49 AM ET · landed 11:09 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ RSW is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4050 · IND → RSW

Odds over time