Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4089
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4089 · MDW → ORF
departs 7:00 PM CT · arrives 10:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.71 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.