Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 409 · AUS → STL
departs 12:30 PM CT · arrives 2:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.