WN 4112 · STL → PHX

departs 2:41 PM CT · arrives 4:02 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4112 · STL → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?