WN 4121 · MCO → BDL

took off 7:30 AM ET · expected to land 9:44 AM ET (scheduled 7:16 AM ET → 10:05 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BDL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BDL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

BDL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4121 · MCO → BDL

Odds over time

How late will it get to BDL?