WN 4124 · STL → SAT

departs 9:46 PM CT · arrives 12:09 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from STL are often late

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4124 · STL → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?