Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4126
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4126 · BWI → ISP
departs 4:10 PM ET · arrives 5:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at ISP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ISP?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
4pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
ISP usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.11 in
ISP (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.